Splinter

SPLINTER — Predict the Future of Water

Probabilistic forecasting API for aquatic pollution events. Built for the CASSINI Hackathon 2026 — "Space for Water" (Rome · Brussels).

Executive Summary

SPLINTER is a B2B2G API platform providing probabilistic forecasts of aquatic pollution events (Harmful Algal Blooms, Cyanobacteria, E. coli, Mucilage, and Floating Plastic) up to 7–28 days in advance. We empower system integrators, insurers, and utilities with actionable risk intelligence derived from Earth Observation data. Core Differentiator: While existing services focus on reactive monitoring, SPLINTER provides forward-looking, multi-event, and insurance-ready probabilistic scoring.

The Problem: "Catastrophes without warning"

Aquatic disasters in European coastal seas, lagoons, and lakes cause billions in damages.

• Economic Impact: The Mar Menor (Spain) disaster led to a €4.5 billion loss in real estate value.
• The Gap: There is currently no operational European service that issues probabilistic pollution alerts with the same reliability as meteorological storm warnings.
• Climate Pressure: Rising temperatures and urban runoff are increasing the frequency of sewage overflows and mass mortality events in aquaculture.

The Solution: A Predictive API

SPLINTER delivers high-resolution risk data through a scalable API. For every subscribed location, the system returns:

• Probabilistic Risk Scores: P(event > threshold X) within Y days.
• Multi-Format Delivery: REST API (JSON) for IT systems, GeoTIFF for GIS mapping, and Webhooks for real-time alerts.
• Galileo OSNMA Authentication: Forecast payloads are digitally signed using Galileo Open Service Navigation Message Authentication, providing a "forensic" evidence layer for insurance claims and environmental compliance.

Technology Stack

Our predictive engine leverages a sophisticated data fusion pipeline:

• Space Data: Sentinel-2 (10m resolution) and Sentinel-3 (Daily OLCI/SLSTR imagery).
• Atmospheric Forcing: ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis for wind, sea surface temperature, and rainfall.
• In-Situ Integration: Regional sensor networks (e.g., ARPA Italy) for ground-truth calibration.
• AI Architecture: A Hybrid CNN-LSTM model designed for spatiotemporal sequence prediction, achieving up to 90% accuracy in identifying bloom formations weeks before they become visible to the naked eye.

Pilot Deployment: Gulf of Taranto (Italy)

SPLINTER is currently operational in the Gulf of Taranto, a critical basin for European mussel farming. The software processes Sentinel imagery to render four specific layers:

1. Plastic Detection: Identifying floating polyethylene aggregates.
2. Floating Algae Index (FAI): Mapping macro-algae mats.
3. Cyanobacteria Risk: Phycocyanin proxy-based bloom forecasting.
4. NDCI: Chlorophyll concentration tracking in turbid coastal waters.

Market & Regulatory Tailwind

SPLINTER aligns with the 2025-2027 European regulatory roadmap:

• Insurance Mandates: Italian Law 213/2023 forces 4M SMEs to seek Nat-Cat coverage, creating a massive demand for parametric water-risk data.
• EU Policies: Directly supports the EU Water Resilience Strategy (2025) and the Environmental Crime Directive, where authenticated satellite evidence becomes a legal necessity.
• Market Growth: The EO Insurance & Finance segment is projected to grow by +165% (€900M) by 2033.

Roadmap

• Short-Term: Pilot expansion in the Adriatic corridor and entry into the CASSINI Business Accelerator.
• Mid-Term: Integration into the IRIDE Marketplace and partnerships with Tier-1 reinsurers (Swiss Re, Generali) for parametric aquaculture and tourism products.

Team: Lorenzo Giordanelli, Giulia Colasante, Rachele Colasante, Gianluca Giordano, Giulia Vernucci, with scientific support from Fondazione Amaldi and expertise from Lega Navale Italiana.